They're also doing this even though Max Fried and Kyle Wright, who combined for 35 wins last season, have made just five starts apiece and won just two games. They're on pace for 109 wins, which would beat the franchise record of 106 set in 1998. What nobody saw coming: That they'd be 8.5 games up on the Marlins, 12 on the Phillies and a whopping 18.5 on the Mets. Record: 60-29 | Projected final record: 107-55ĭivision title odds: 100% | Playoff odds: 100% | Championship odds: 26% Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers. A score better than 100 means a team's outlook has improved, while under 100 is bad news. The average score is 100 - the farther a team is from 100, the more its outlook has changed. To better put into perspective the unexpected nature of this season, we're including a category called the unexpected score: a measure of how far each team has deviated from its final preseason forecast, based on changes in win projection, playoff chances and title odds. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle's power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. If a team doesn't have division title or championship odds listed, its odds were <0.1%. We've also included Doolittle's final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams. We've broken down all 30 squads into seven tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. How will these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for? And the Marlins have the second-best record in the National League at the break. The Mets and Padres, who had World Series aspirations entering the season, both sit next-to-last in their respective divisions. The Reds called up phenom Elly De La Cruz, went on a run and entered the All-Star break atop the division. The Rangers shot up the standings with a sky-high run differential thanks to a powerhouse offense. But the first half of the 2023 season was also full of surprises. Sure, there are teams that you expect to contend every season, such as the Braves, Yankees, Dodgers and Astros. This season has been anything but predictable. Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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